I wanted to be able to finish writing this and give a complete overview of what to look out for.
I’m an underdog-style bettor looking for value anytime I see it. I also do not bet on all matches but rather just a few with great value.
1. Age Factor: Be careful betting a favorite who is older then the age of 35. Especially against young guys this can prove to be a mismatch despite the skill level of the more experienced fighter. Recent examples: Matt Hughes and Evan Tanner were 2 to 1 favorites heading into their fights.

2. Striker vs Grappler: At lower levels, advantage heavily favors grapplers as they usually have decent stand up. At higher levels (e.g. championship levels) slight advantage goes to the striker as they probably have good take down defense and some sort of ground game that got them there in the first place.

3. Wrestler vs Jiu Jitsu practitioner: Advantage goes to the wrestler. This one is a huge generalization and the statement definitely has its flaws. If experience is similar and all things are equal such as striking, then the wrestler is likely going to win. Wrestlers can win by lay and pray, jiu jitsu guys don’t win by simply pulling guard and taking punches.

*Note: this type of analysis is generally a last resort but it works well for lower-tier level fighters.

4. Time between fights is a huge factor. Some fighters do have ring rust after a long layoff and usually need one fight to “wake up”. Some fighters react differently to the long layoff. Some good, some get better. I overlooked this when considering the Rampage/Griffin fight. Rampage definitely used this as a excuse even when the layoff period between he and Forrest was the same. Some fighters react differently, it’s is a small variable to the complicatedness to handicapping MMA.

While there’s a great chance Fedor wins, be careful betting the house on him against Sylvia (I’m putting a small amount on Tim even if I hate him).

5. Changing weight classes. Changing weight classes is more of a weight (wait) and see approach and I would err on the side of caution when betting a big favorite. From a logical stand point, I can probably say that a fighter is more likely to dominate dropping in weight and will have more of a difficult time when moving up a weight class.

I don’t have anything to prove this on top of my head but it makes sense right? Moving down in weight class generally involves in a fighter being stronger in relative to their competition but may sacrifice things such as speed and cardio. Moving up generally means being faster but at the risk of a strength disadvantage. Just be weary. E.g. Anderson Silva at -550 may be a huge risk. Where as I feel much safer betting big with Vera.

6. Avoid decision-ers who are favorites. Ending a fight has become key to a fighter’s success as their excitably depends on it. A lot of fans give out a ton of flack against guys who can’t finish. What the heck does this have to do with betting? Well this is more then just merely looking at “results” but more about ability. Can he/she end a fight by TKO/KO/Submission? If the answer is no, you probably don’t like the fighter anyway to consider laying some money as a favorite.

There is so much that can happen in between and getting caught occurs so many times. The fact that a fighter doesn’t have a killer instinct is a skill I tend to be critical of.

Note: This does not mean to avoid betting on Lyoto or heck even Josh Koscheck. Lyoto can end a fight by TKO or in Sokou case submssion, Koscheck can still TKO guys and was close with Lytle.

7. No betting blind on favorites. Betting blind may prove to be fun in poker or 3-card brag but betting “blind” on MMA fighters occurs a lot. Know your fighters and know them well. A lot of people fall into traps by betting big against UFC newcomers that they don’t know about. Goran Reljic was a 3 to 1 underdog but was undefeated. He didn’t fight anyone of note but how could you ever justify betting against a guy you don’t know?

Guys like Yoshida or Palhares were given incredible underdog odds despite it being known by ‘experts’ that they were better. Doing your homework does pay off.

This page will be continually updated as I gain more experience.