Sport Chit Chat

Anderson Silva has become one of MMA’s most favorite fighter after dominating title defenses of Franklin and Henderson. He has absolutely decimated the middleweight division with arguably one or two contenders left (Okami and Bisping). However for a potential one-hit wonder, Spider is moving up a weightclass to fight James “Sandman” Irvin. Also be sure to look at my MMA betting guide first for some more insight.

Let’s take a look at the potential action here:
James “Sandman” Irvin (+405) vs. Anderson “Spider” Silva (-555)
Pick: James Irvin is worth a small play. Anytime a guy is +400 and a legit UFC guy competitor and far from a can, he’s worth a play. Irvin is a striker with a puncher’s chance to get lucky. At -555, there is no action on this bet unless you have a huge bankroll and is willing to bet the house on him. At -555 you are giving Irvin a 15.3% chance to win adding the fact that Silva is moving up in weight so it’s a bit of an unknown how his physical attributes will stack up to bigger competition. I do see Spider taking it but there’s too much value in Irvin at that line.

Kevin Burns (+245) vs Anthony Johnson (-305)
Analysis: Anthony Johnson is one hell of a striker. He’s ended two of his ufc fights under 1 minute. I think everyone knows you don’t really want to stand with Johnson and he’ll probably look to take the game to the ground. I have yet to see the Clementi fight where he apparently looked awful (someone send me the link). He’s looked good but he hasn’t shown enough for anyone to have the confidence to put some big money on him. Kevin Burns pulled off a major upset @ UFC 85 as he submitted black belt Roan Carneiro a UFC vet who scored victories over the likes of Rich Clementi, Tony DeSouza and holds losses to the likes of Jon Fitch, Anderson Silva and Ryo Chonan. Burns was also just a blue belt (the first advancement after white) but showed off some natural instincts to get out from mount and side control. His stand up was also decent as he rocked Carneiro a few times. Kevin Burns is still an unknown but in my opinion, he was incredibly impressive and it doesn’t warrant the lines giving him a 25% chance to win.
Pick: Excellent value on Burns, I put a decent sized bet though he’s more of an unknown still.

Hermes Franca (+130) vs Frank Edgar (-160)
Analysis: There are a lot of unknowns in play here. How is Franca after one year off? How will Edgar bounce back after his loss? Franca can end a fight sometimes by KO and he’s mostly known for ending fights by submission with victories over Nate Diaz and Spencer Fisher. I want to look at the Fisher result, Franca TKO’d him in 2 rounds while Edgar decisioned him showing off great striking. If I use my MMAth, a TKO > Decision. Edgar has a great fight with Tyson Griffin but has a poor showing against Gray Maynard where he was admittedly a little bit outstruck (arguable) and overpowered by Maynard’s wrestling. The problem is that Franca is a pretty decently sized LW and my instincts say the smart money is on Franca who comes in as a bit of a dog. The lines say Edgar is a 60% favorite and I’d say it’s a 50/50 thing depending on how Franca is after the long layoff.
Pick: Small bet on Franca.

Reese Andy (+370) vs Brandon Vera (-400)
Analysis: Vera moves down after an unsuccessful return to the HW division. I’m not so much worried about Vera as he can finally exact some strength on his opponents. Andy is a 35-year business owner and MMA fighter. At 7-1, he’s unknown and all directions point to him being considered a guy being through to wolves for Vera. His loss was to a 6-4 fighter. However, he is still an unknown to me and a record is just that. You can’t judge talent that way. Some things that may detract you from betting Vera include the short time to get used to fighting at a lower weight, cutting for the first time (who knows how it will affect him).
Pick: Bet big on Vera or if you fear the unknown, this one is not worth a play).

Rory Markham (-265) vs Brodie Farber (+205):
Analysis: Can I say fuck you to the some of the major books for choosing this fight instead of the Velasquez/O’Brien fight, or the Taylor/Dolloway fight? These fights are actually on the main card where this card looks like one we won’t see. Two UFC newcomers and two unknowns to me. Farber is 13-3 but most of his opponents have records under .500. He did fight a minute with Sean Sherk in a loss. His other loss was to Brian Warren a fighter with a losing record but 8-5 at the time and Bret Bergmark (5-1). Rory Markham is 15-4 and is an IFL vet with a win over Mike Pyle. His record is much more impressive and the line probably justifies his KO power. He’s fought much more experienced opponents which likely justifies theline.
Pick: Farber may be worth a play for the fun of it. Though I recommend not betting a fight you may not get to see and it’s a wild card to be honest.

Other fights with lines not out just yet (will update):
Cain Velasquez (3-0) vs. Jake O’Brien (10-1)
Jesse Taylor (7-2) vs. CB Dollaway (7-1)
Tim Credeur (9-2) vs. Cale Yarbrough (0-0)
Nate Loughran (8-0) vs. Johnny Rees (10-0)
James Giboo (11-2) vs. Brad Blackburn (12-9-1)
Dale Hartt (5-0) vs. Shannon Gugerty (9-2)

Lines from: Bookmaker.com
MrSport.It has their own picks: they recommend a play on Anderson, a small bet on Franca, no action on Vera, no action or small play on Burns, and a play on Markham.