Sport Chit Chat

Randy “The Natural” Couture
DOB: June 22, 1963
Height = 6 foot 1
Weight = 220 lbs
Record: 16-8-1
Notable losses: Chuck Liddell X2, Vitor Belfort (cut), Josh Barnett, Ricco Rodriguez, Valentijn Overeem, Enson Inoue

Strengths: Roman Greco Wrestling (in turns leads to good take downs and a top notch clinch game), game planning, high level of pace and quickness

Weaknesses: Lack of size for a HW, no submission game proving difficult to finish some opponents, age

Brock Lesnar
Height: 6 foot 3
Weight: 265 (at weigh in)
Record: 2-1
Only Loss; Frank Mir (or Murr according to Lesnar)

Strengths: strength, wrestling, heavy fists, general athleticism

Weaknesses: prone to submissions, refusal to put hooks and pull own submissions, inexperience (handicapping becomes difficult due to this in turn), questionable cardio, poor instincts due to inexperience. He’s shown some major improvements but because it’s still

Both guys have their question marks that make them almost unbettable. Randy is 45, Brock has the body of a champion and the skills to be a high level fighter but the problem is inexperience. His inexperience entails a lot of things including his jiujitsu skills, his scrambling instincts and the level of his striking.

How will the fight go?

Randy will try to measure Brock with counter punching. Then he will try to put Brock on his back and see how he reacts. Randy might pull off some ground and pound will Brock tries to buck him off. If Brock secures a takedown, he will probably finish Couture. His ground and pound is lethal and there shouldn’t be a reason with Brock’s strength that he will be able to at least hold him down and thus tire out Randy. I really think Randy has to work harder for a victory then Brock.

Who’s the better bet? Brock but it’s still a coin toss. (The odds coincide)

So trying to bet against the Cowboys cost me this time around. Still +2 on the Bucs, I’d take in a heartbeat but I must say I have to rethink taking road teams a lot more.

This week is interesting to say the least, not many teams that you could say will outrightly win. Let’s take a look.

Home dogs:

Tampa Bay Buc (-9, -435) vs Kansas City Chiefs (+9, +365)
Pick: 9 points is what the Bucs last week against a very good Dallas d. So to expect them to make up a 9 point differential against a good defense is kind of a) unfair b) not worth betting. I do love Garcia though. He’s also good at picking up very hot women, and in turn making them having cat fights with each other. Even though TO doesn’t like him and calls him gay, maybe he’s just jealous?

Arizona Cardinals (-3, -155) vs St. Louis Rams (+3, +135)
Pick: Cardinals. While the Rams have played decent enough at times to get their spreads in decent range. The Cardinals are better… granted this isn’t a game I would bet on. Divisional game and this game would be huge for the Rams if they win. Haslett has been doing good things. Wouldn’t that be messed up (in a nice way) for the Rams to make the playoffs?

Atlanta Falcons (-3,-145) vs Oakland Raiders (+3, +125)
Pick: Falcons but those damn Raiders can beat people. I’d feel less confident with the Falcons instead of the Jets so I can see the Raiders doing well here. It’s much more of a toss up, so maybe betting the Raiders here may be a wiser choice.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs Seattle Seahawks (+6.5)
With recent losses, it’s clear: The NFC East is overrated. It looked absolutely crazy a few weeks ago but now, it looks rather average. To make matters worse, they are losing to the worst division in football. Losses to the Cardinals and Rams stick out.
So if it’s any trend, don’t take the Eagles. The +6.5 line may be worth a play.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) vs Cinncinati Bengals (+7.5)
The Jags lost at home to the Browns.. the Browns could barely beat the Bengals. I think if there’s any game for the Bengals to win, it’s this one. The Jags are struggling mightily. Defensively their line is just not doing well without Stroud. While Fitzpatrick does suck, he does show some positive things at times. Go with the Bengals here.

Close games:

Houston Texans (+4.5, +180) vs Minnesota Vikings (-210, -4.5)
Pick: Houston
If I could choose an upset of the week, it would be the Texans. Both teams have a good defense but the difference maker is the Texan’s ability to make plays through the air as Schuab finally has his groove back. Please bring in Tavaris Jackson back or instead of trying to trade for Brady Quinn, trade for Leinart.

Baltimore Ravens (+1.5) vs Cleveland Browns (-1.5)
Pick: Ravens
Yes it’s a divisional game and yes it’s also a rivalry and yes the Browns are at home. Unfortunately I’m going to overlook those things and take a reasonable spread on a reasonable team.

Green Bay Packers (+4.5) vs Tennessee Titans (-4.5)
Pick: Titans.
Much better team, the Pack isn’t that good on the road as well.

Miami vs Denver (-3): I’d pick Miami but… I just hate Denver so i think my judgment may be clouded.

Pittsburgh vs Washington: Hmm.. toss up. Can’t decide.

Quick picks: Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo : Buffalo should win

Home dogs:
San Diego Chargers (-3, -165) vs New Orleans Saints (+3, +145)
Pick: Saints.
I am a Bolts kind of guy but the Chargers as a road favorite just doesn’t suit it as they haven’t earned that right. The Saints are crap in my opinion but just aren’t that bad to be home dogs in this game. Value on the Saints.

Buffalo Bills (-1, -115) vs Miami Dolphins (+1,-105)
Pick: I want to pick the Bills but watchout for Miami.
I’m also a Bills fan but Dolpins are a division rival which means you just never know.

Washington Redskins (-7.5, -335) vs Detroit Lions (+7.5, +285)
Pick: Skins but by their skin…
The Skins already lost a game they were supposed to win and the Lions..suck.

Close games:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2, +110) vs Dallas Cowboys (-2. -130)
Pick: Tampa Bay
Uh… so isn’t Romo still out? I don’t get this line if Romo is sitting the Boys should be home dogs. If and when I get my money back betting on the UFC. This is the game I’m putting my cash on.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, -145) vs NY Giants (+3, +125)
Pick: Giants
I’d feel comfortable taking the +3 with the Giants, simply because the Steelers play in close games and the Giants have beaten up opponents other then the Bengals. Steelers can win by a field goal or lose poorly to the Giants.

I’m lazy this week.

I probably stand to lose some money as I’ve sprinkled some money on some big dogs and hope to pull even with my favorite pick.

Patrick Cote (around +550) or Anderson Silva (around -750)
Before betting make sure you find the best sports book that has the best line. Due to being such a big underdog fight, Silva has ranged from -650 to -1150.

Anderson Silva is the MOST overrated fighter in the world. Beyond Fedor as it stands. It’s warranted and he has the skills but the way he’s nuthugged is ridiculous. I don’t think a MMA fight should ever be more then -500 unless you are Fedor (who is literally the best all around). Silva has weaknesses which are involved with his takedown defense and his grappling. The notion that he has wordclass jiu-jitsu is absurd. You WANT to take down Spider and people have done it at will. (See Okami, Takase)

Patrick Cote is probably not the fighter to take down Anderson but to give Cote zero chance, standing and on their feet is a joke. I’m not saying Andy is going to take Cote light but with the right gameplan and a tempered aggression can show you some of Silva’s weaknesses. Cote needs a lot of luck to win but I think he’ll at least impress. P.S. Cote will back away for the first two minutes trying to measure Anderson. Eventually he’ll try to work a clinch game and bait the Thai plumb and take down Silva. What happens from there will determine the winner.
Pick: No one in the right mind is willing to risk 7 dollars to make one. Just makes no sense from a logistic stand point. I’d rather put my money into the stock market. Sprinkle some money on Cote.

Thiago Alves (+120) vs Josh Koscheck (-150)
Pick: Toss up/advantage Koscheck
I’m surprised Alves made weight. Diego Sanchez impied that Alves has a enhanced body and while Alves has been caught with illegal substances before, it definitely makes sense but that’s kind of mean. I don’t know how Alves manages to moves but he’s going to be to raise that level is Koscheck can takedown the best (see GSP). However Alves can scare Koscheck away with his striking. Advantage goes to Koscheck though since he does have good enough striking now while Alves has no real ground game.

Gray Maynard (-225) vs Rich Clementi (+185)
Pick: Maynard but Clementi is great value here.
Maynard was going to be one of my picks and must to my disdain, Maynard is a huge favorite. Maynard has zero value due to inexperience. While Clementi is good match up for Maynard it isnt out of order to see Clementi subbing or outworking Maynard.

Fabricio Werdum (-750) vs Junior Dos Santos (+550)
Sprinkled money on JDS. Though I know nothing about him.
Why is Werdum a -750? He really didn’t impressed me on his feet against Arlovski. We found that he can pass Vera’s guard and got a early ref stoppage. I’m just not as impressed with him.

Tyson Griffin (+220) vs Sean Sherk (-270)
Pick: Sherk all day long.
Tyson Griffin is incredibly overrated. He used to be an exciting fighter but since he’s been afraid to wrestle grapplers and used is striking which is okay but very boring. Griffin’s wrestling will be tested but look for it to go the way of Edgar vs Griffin but with more domination. Griffin might make it look close but Sherk will outclass him.

Quick Picks:
Thales Leites vs Drew McFedries: at -455, Leites takes it. Worth a parlay.
Franca vs Aurelio: Franca has the striking advantage and I could see him KOing Aurelio.
Pete Sell vs Josh Burkman - at +180 I like Sell here, not much to bet on but Burkman is overrated and has been lackluster inawhile. The fact that he missed weight is very telling. Pete Sell at 170 is very scary, he just gets a bad rap for getting KO’d by Nate Quarry (and that awesome KO by Smith) but ask Kalib Starnes how he feels about Quarry’s strikes (well he can’t answer you, he’s already ducking that).

The media blows. Even with the Leafs meant to be sucking they find stories in non-stories in the Leafs. Honest who should give a fuck?

He’s taking a lot of flak from switching goalies for the shootout. Granted it doesn’t seem like a smart idea that it hasn’t worked but it’s more then what other coaches are trying.

It’s more demoralizing to lose shootout after shootout, isn’t it worth trying something to switch things up?

That’s exact what Wilson is doing. Other then Kulemin we’ve had different shooters.

To$kala doesn’t seem like the type fazed. He’s enjoying himself out there in which he knows he’s playing for a season that’s mean to be lost. It also looks like Toskala and Joseph were told of the switching happening. How is that hurtful to Toskala’s psyche?

The Leafs should probably think of trading Toskala anyway if they can get the right price. Otherwise it’s dumb/shallow to think the Leafs made the wrong choice. Wilson has gotten the Leafs to work hard in every single game and while a 1-2-3 record isn’t sexy the outright losses are to the two best teams in the conference (New York is overrated :P).

Don’t listen to the media on this… it just isn’t important. You can’t fault a guy for trying to pull some strings.

Wilson was meant to fail this season.. it can’t hurt if he makes some insane choices or decisions. The fact that these things are still front page stories on Canadian outlets is dumb.

P.S. It IS a good strategy to switch goalies in a shoot out provided it’s done correctly. WARM the fuck up. Have the goalie in the back constantly warming up and taking shots from the guys who were scratched or something. The fact the goalies are cold shouldn’t be a big deal, back up goalies should be able to warm up in time if they know they are being called upon.

Sorry I missed last week due to being busy.

Home dogs (where most if not all the upsets inexplicably occur)

Tennessee Titans (-9, -375) vs Kansas City Chiefs (+9, +315)
Pick: Chiefs with points may tickle your fancy. The Titans are good but that 9 point spread will be hard to cover. The Titans know how to win games but they are concerned with ball control and grinding it for the win. Which means you can expect a close (ish) game.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-9.5,-450) vs Cinncinati Bengals (+9.5, +375)
Same as above. Not sure if Pittsburgh can pull away. However I suggest not betting this one. The Chiefs proved they can beat a team… Cinnci doesn’t have the D to pull it off.

NY Jets (-3, -175) vs Oakland Raiders (+3, +155)
Pick: Easily take the Jets. Spread within reasonable range and I don’t see Oakland as having that homefield advantage (as long as the psycho Al Davis is around) for awhile.

Indianapolis Colts (-1, -120) vs Green Bay Packers (+1, even)
Pick: Packers… I think it’s a trap for the Colts. Riding on a high wave. Can they stop the run? Or a dangerous pass offense. Lambeau field is no easy task. I’m not touching this being a Colts fan.

Close games:
San Diego Chargers (+1) vs Buffalo Bills (-1)
Uh-oh two of my favorite teams playing. I’ll just bring out the popcorn. I’d say this one is tough. Edwards was hurt and the Chargers aren’t consistent.

Denver Broncos (+3, +145) vs New England (-3, -165)
Pick: New England, better team (defensively) and look for Cassel to step up on Monday night. It isn’t so much Cassel’s fault but it seems like they get conservative once they hit the red zone.

Minnesota Vikings (+3, +155) vs Chicago Bears (-3, -175)
Pick: Bears at -3. Orton being so good is scary (I didn’t expect it). The Vikes need to go back with Tavaris.

New Orleans Saints (+3, +140) vs Carolina Panthers (-3,-160)
Pick: toss up…

That’s all folks.
Vegas make up your mind:
St. Louis and Dallas’ line has yet to be dislocated. Romo watch.

UFC 89 a weak but surprise surprise FREE card. It sure couldn’t hurt to put on a good card but nonetheless with a card coming up next week as well. I sure as hell don’t mind. I don’t have much to say.

Chris “The Crippler” Leben (+180) vs Michael “The Count” Bisping (-220)
Pick: The Crippler.
Who has The Count faced that makes him so good? He lost to Rashad Evans in a close but rather decisive decision. He lucked out against Matt Hamill and in general he beats on Ju-jitsu guys/grapplers. His main strength is his technical striking but he’s been dominated based on control. He just ground and pounds weaker foes and will probably have to take it to the ground against Leben to win. The Crippler will keep moving forward and most shots will probably unfaze him. Leben’s a good bet here as an almost to 2 to 1 dog. Leben’s achilles heel are guys who are willing to go to the ground and that isnt Bisping.

Keith Jardine (+155) vs Brandon Vera (-185)
Pick: Keith Jardine. Jardine is a more proven fighter while The Truth still remains a question mark after disappoint performances. To win, Vera must be ruthless and pick up and the pace looking for the KO. Or else he will be strategically picked up by Greg Jackson and Co. Vera has more improving to do but I don’t bet my money on how good a fighter will become but what he already is and Vera is just another overrated fighter who hasn’t done squat lately.

Luiz Cane (-105) vs Sokoudjou (-125): Too CLOSE to call! Should be an awesome fight. If Cane was a bigger dog I would take him as I think Sok is overrated after some big wins.

Chris Lytle (-350) vs Paul Taylor (+280): I would take Lytle here. Not betting since he’s my favorite fighter.

Paul Kelly (+235) vs Marcus Davis (-295): Kelly’s a live dog here, the odds are justified but we’ll see if he has the moxie to pull off an upset.

Dan Hardy (+285) vs Akhiro Gono (-355): Gono is a decent fighter and Hardy will be hard pressed to beat the guy the weird blog posts.

Neil Wain (+500) vs Shane Carwin (-700): Who? (Of course I know Carwin want to see more of him before laying a big one at -700)

Liaudin (+125) vs Bielkheden (-155): Liaudin isn’t very good and is a staple on these English cards. Dominating by Diego Sanchez didn’t really give us an idea where Bielkheden is.

Terry Etim (+240) vs Sam Stout (-300): Stout is overrated? Etim shouldn’t be that big of a dog though I don’t know as much. From what I’ve seen from Stout… he doesn’t belong as a 3 to 1 favorite yet.

Alexei Cherapanov, the New York Ranger’s top prospect has passed away at the young age of 19. He is quite well known to hockey hardcore fans as he was a top 5 talent heading into the 2007 draft and dropped to 17th after teams called for boycotting/avoiding Russian players.

Some of the details of his death are unknown… but it apparently took 15-20 minutes for the ambulance to come back (it’s normally at games but left for some reason). This was after an accidental collision with Jagr apparently… There also was no defibrillator in the arena that are normally located in NHL games.

The question with Cherepanov was also when he would come over to North America and I was personally excited to watch him play. It just sucks… only 19 to as well, he’s a year younger then me too.

Here’s a highlight of his skills:

Rest In Peace.

More details to follow…sad day for hockey.
His stats in his final 15 games: 8 goals 5 assists for Avangard Omsk.

Here’s a recording of Cherepanov’s motionless body being lifted from the bench to the dressing room:

I’ve got to do this quick…

Home dogs:
Indianapolis Colts (-3, -170) vs Houston Texans (+3, +150)
Easy pick. Colts. They need a win as they sit at 1-2 and I can see them winning by 3 points or more.

Tennessee Titans (-2.5, -140) vs Baltimore Ravens (+2.5, +120)
This was going to be my pick of the week until the spread changed. The Ravens create a match up a problem for the Titans with their defense and Flacco is capable of moving the ball. They were winning against Pitt but failed to close it out. The Titans is a tough team to bet against though and at this point, I’m probably passing out taking the Ravens since the line dipped.

San Diego Chargers (-6, -265) vs Miami Dolphins (+6, +225)
Pick: Chargers at -6. I think the Chargers have been covering the spread except for their 1st loss and the Dolphins have no easy task today. They do have a good running attack but you ultimately kill the Chargers through the air and they are getting better.

Chicago Bears (-3, -175) vs Detroit Lions (+3, +155)
Pick: None. Never bet on the Lions but the Bears are too much of a wildcard team. They lose to the Panthers but play very well against the Eagles. Some people probably paid the price financially and I’m probably going to watch and see how the Bears do.

New England Patriots (-3, -170) vs San Francisco Giants (+3, +150)
Pick: I like SF at +3. Why? Frank Gore. JT O’sullivan isn’t anything special but ditto for Pennington and Ronnie Brown ran all over the Pats defense. It’ll be a surprise to see the Pats scoring more then 20.

Close games:
Buffalo Bills (+1.5, +105) vs Arizona Cardinals (-1.5, -125)
Pick: Buffalo (may be biased ;), this is a 4-0 team that still doesn’t have believers. They’ll easily be a playoff team and yeah they won’t go far but they have a great defense, a running game and by the far the best special teams in the game that will help them win these close games. Arizona is not the team that will beat the Bills. It’ll be San Diego and their division games that will be more problemsome.

Tampa Bay (+3, +160) vs Denver Broncos (-3, -190)
Pick: Tampa Bay. Can Denver be reliable to cover the spread on any team other then the Raiders? Probably not. When you call a team overrated, it’s always put a smile on your face to watch them to lose to one of worst teams in the league. I could see Tampa getting the upset or at least covering.

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, +160) vs Green Bay Packers (-3.5, -190)
Pick: Green Bay but only if Rodgers is playing. I think the Packers lost due to the inexperience displays by Rodgers. He didn’t play too well without the home crowd against a very physical team as well. Atlanta is physical but the Packers are much better.

New Orleans Saints (-3, -160) vs Minnesota Vikings (+3, +140)
Pick: Toss up. I’m overthinking this one but the Vikings d will be problematic for the Saints.

I’m too tired to do the other games.

Maybe you should try your luck on Cinci at +160 or +700 otherwise, ultimately trust your own gut and good luck to you.

I was 0-1 on my bets which is what I care about more. I’m paying the price of taking two road teams outright which on hindsight looks poor on my part. Still I’m taking the Colts at -3 and I’m leaning toward taking the Bills at +1.5 but I may be playing a biased game.

Are you a gambling man who likes big underdogs and isn’t afraid to lose some dough? Well… then the Elite XC card on CBS tomorrow likely will fill out your pleasure because Elite XC is notorious for putting on… squash matches.

Kimbo Slice (-400) vs Ken Shamrock (+300)
Pick: Not worth betting.
Shamrock is OLD. He’s lost 7 of his last 8 fights. The Tito Ortiz trilogy was like watching a slow car crash. He followed his post-UFC career with a loss to Robert Berry (who?) (12-8 career). His only win is against Kimo Leopoldo (who?). He was once a legend but yeah he has a problem on his hands. Kimbo Slice is an improving opponent who made A LOT of mistakes against James Thompson specifically on the ground with a reckless guillotine guard pull (commentators referred to it as a DDT) and some poor guard defense which he ended up crucified (the move…not w/e). The line is justifed. You could argue that Shamrock, a wrestler should be able to take down Kimbo and expose him but I doubt Shammy could w/o getting rocked.

Roy “Big Country” Nelson (+300) vs Andrei “How’s Taste My Pee-Pee-Pee” Arlovski (-400)
Pick: Andrei Arlovski but Affliction may be jinxing things so I’ll pass on betting -400.
Why? Not fat guys. Seriously. Arlovski’s fight was actually very exciting fight with Arlovski outwilling Ben Rothwell a very talented heavyweight that many (including myself) thought could upset Arlovski. Nelson doesn’t have the stand up skill and that’s a problem. Arlovski only losses are by KO/TKO. He’s too fast and strong to submit imo. Arlovski should easily beat the fat guy.

Gina Carano (-600) vs Kelly Kobold (+450)
Gina Carano is very hot. She’s also undefeated and therefore CBS has been protecting her. I would never bet on Carano though as it’s likely she’ll go down one day but it’s clear that she IS the best women martial artist in the world (a bout with Santos is what people are really looking for). Weight cutting issues aside, her striking makes it hard for most women and Kobold will likely take punishment trying to implement a game plan as Carano is well rounded on the ground.
Pick: Sprinkle on Kabold, but probably not worth it.

Paul “Semtex” Daley (+400) vs Jake Shields (-550)
This is actually a fight where Elite XC probably doesn’t have a vested interest in the result. A striker vs grappler match up however at those odds, Daley can pull out a win or win by strikes.
Pick: Good value on Semtex but he’s still an underdog. I think a +300 would be more suitable. I’m basing this on Shields dominating grapplers but I’m not sure about his stand up. Daley is a legit fighter.

Murila “Ninja” Rua (-200) vs Benji Radach (+165)
Don’t know enough about Benji. Can’t help you.

Cristiane “Cyborg” Santos (-600) vs Yoko Takahashi (+450)
Pick: Cyborg by murder. If you saw Cyborg’s last fight..this would not be in doubt.