Sport Chit Chat

Disclaimer: I suck at MLB playoff predictions. I just don’t have a good handle for whatever reason. So you may do better betting against my picks.

Milwaukee Brewers (+155) vs Philadelphia Phillies (-175)
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers in 5
Why: Pitching counts. Let’s compare rotations. Milwaukee has Gollardo, Sabathia, Suppan, Bush and Sheets who can pitch if the latter two suck. I don’t see a major upgrade between the Phillies, sure they have Utley, Rollins and Howard but the Brew crew have their fair share of talent on the field in Fielder, Braun, Hardy etc. Their role players are just better imo. I say the Phillies are the slightly better team but they don’t impress me and I’ll take the odds at +155.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+170) vs Chicago Cubs (-200)
Pick: Chicago Cubs in 4
I think the stuff about LA’s pitching staff being better is a pile of crap. Zambrano, Lilly, Harden and Dempster is pretty formidable. The Dodger’s staff is backed by the pitcher park friendly so stats wise they benefit. I just think it’s the Cubs year and people just will root as hard as they can for the Cubs. 100 years…
The Dodgers do have momentum on their side but they played in a mediocre division.

Boston Red Sox (+125) vs LAAoA (-145)
Pick: Toss up. Angels in 5?
This one is too close to call, the Sox have more post season experience having just won but they are a lot of injury question marks. I personally don’t like the Angels all that much but I think they could get it done. The Sox have good value here as a slight underdog.

Tampa Bay Rays (-170) vs Chicago White Sox (+150)
Pick: Rays in 3 or 4.
The White Sox tired out their pitchers trying to win the central division and offensively they can’t bring it to the Rays solid corps. I’m not too high on the Sox pitching either. Shields, Kazmir, Garza are as good as a top 3 as you are going to get.

The Chicago Cubs are currently the league’s best team based on team records. It’s also been 100 years since they last won a world series (yes 1908) and could they be poised for another one? My prediction is yes, not only it’s the story most baseball would want to see (after their own respective teams falter) but the team is more then capable. Let’s take a look at their team to dissect what makes it’s good.

Pitching: Acquiring Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin in what is referred to as robbery regardless of Harden’s health puts the rotation as Zambrano, Lilly, Harden, Dempster and (shudder) Marquis. The top 3 is as good as you’ll probably get with two guys who are aces and Lilly is a respectable #3. Dempster has been pitching out of his skin, I can see him struggling down the road but you never know. Thankfully Marquis won’t need to pitch during the playoffs. The pen is held by Kerry Wood, Marmol, Gaudin (who can start), Howry, Cotts and Marshall as well as Samardzija. The bullpen is a wildcard but he’s been good so far.

Hitting: Lee, Ramirez, Soto and Soriano have been the star performances. They’ve gotten great work out of their role players like Sparky (Reed Johnson), DeRosa and Theriot. One downside would probably be Fukudome but he takes a walk so is useful in that regard.

The Cubs aren’t a very sexy pick to be honest. They’ve just been an all-around good time with come back victories and winning important series in one of the tougher divisions in baseball. They’ve played great when they needed and aren’t a shabby team themselves.

Here are their opponents:
Chicago White Sox and/or Minnesota Twins: I see either or both hard press to make it out of the AL against the likes of Tampa Bay, Boston and LAA.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels are good but not as good as you think. They are in the worst division in baseball with their next competition coming in the way of the Texas Rangers who they are 16 games up on and will be the first team to clinch a playoff spot. They almost got swept by Tampa Bay but they did own the Red Sox and Yankees when they came into town. I think both Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders are more likely then good and the only pitcher that can probably hold their own during the playoffs is Lackey. Their pitching has been lucky for the most part, their Pythagorean record is 72-61 9 games worse then their record, suggesting that they are winning close games (as evidenced by KRods save count). I think their regression will either occur during the end of the season in which they are due for a slump or in the playoffs. It’s nice having an awesome closer but not good enough.

Tampa Bay Rays - great team. Inexperienced. Would be cool if they made it to the playoffs and while I think they are capable, generally veteran experience is sometimes needed.

Boston Red Sox - everyone says that Boston will likely face the Cubs in the WS, I tend to agree. Unless their injuries creates further problems (which they may even miss the playoffs with the Twins very close). I think I would’ve said the Red Sox would be still winning it BEFORE the Manny deal. I’m not sure now and when the Red Sox go to the NL, the Ortiz problem creates an issue.

Milwaukee Brewers - Cubs owned them.

Phillies/Mets - whomever wins, I doubt they would stand a chance against the Brew Crew’s pitching.

Arizona Diamonbacks - this first round match will be a tough one. They have a great rotation and may be hard press to win the first two games (Haren + Webb)…but Arizona’s defense with Dunn in right and a lot of their offense out, Chicago may squeak out against them. I think Arizona gives the Cubs a big enough push that they don’t look back and win it.

We’ll see come October. I’m rooting for the Cubs nontheless even though I’m not a fan. It’s just a feel good story with the most popular team in baseball worldwide (suck it Yanks/Bosox) looks to win one after a century of futility.

Everyone now knows the news but do they really know? Yeah I got nothing left to introduce this trade. Manny Ramirez was traded away to the LA Dodgers Heyman first reported. I actually called Heyman a dick to “The Shark” for not providing us any details but that’s besides the point.

Here’s the trade:

LA Dodgers get Manny Ramirez for the rest of 2008, his team options were declined and he has agreed to decline arbitration when he is offered it. Talk about being nice.

Boston Red Sox get: My Canadian hero Jason Bay.

Pittsburgh gets Andy LaRoche (LA), Bobby Morris (LA), Brandon Moss (BOS) and Craig Hansen (BOS)

With LA, Manny Ramirez joins an underachieving Dodger team. He’s a great hitter and considered a poor defender. Not much else to say. I’m going to say he’s an underrated left fielder. People seem to think he’s the absolute worst defender out there. He’s just slow and makes some questionable plays every now and then. The monster makes everyone look bad. True Blue LA thinks they now have one of the worst defenses in the league. Blue Heaven hates it. I have to agree with them though, I don’t hate acquiring Manny as he’s a great player. The rest of the roster kind of sucks. Who’s the odd man out? They have an unhealthy glut of outfielders right now. Andy LaRoche will probably bite them in the bum.

The Red Sox get the best Canadian player in the league (arguable with Morneau but Bay has done his job for a floundering Pirates team). What doesn’t he have? No real upgrade, no experience on a winning team and therefore no playoff experience. The Red Sox gave up 7 million and two prospects for him. Still he’s a great player and I wish him the best. It’s still early but 35% of Sox fans hate the trade. I can see why they hate it, giving up money and two prospects for at best an equal player who is worth more due to his contract but notsomuch for the Sox.

The big winners of this deal, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Here’s a breakdown of the ’spects if you need more information.
Andy LaRoche: joins his brother Adam as the LaRoche Bros. are not servicing the corner infields. He was the Dodgers 2nd best prospect heading into the season and is still highly ranked. The problem? Dodgers management. He never got an opportunity to stick at 3rd where he’s expected to be a great player. He was the top 5th hitting prospect heading into this season. He has a near elite batting eye with a 1:1 walk to K ratio. He hits for some decent power, around 25 he projects but could hit 30 occasionally. Can be an all-star. Great great prospect despite his struggle in the majors. Scott Rolen type hitter?

Bryan Morris would be a great prospect but with pitchers and that dumb saying TINSTAPP, a pitcher is like risky stock, valuable one second, and worthless when he injured his arm. Morris had TJ surgery after his 2006 season missing all of 2007 and basically forgotten until this year. He would’ve been a top 5 prospect had the injury not taken place. He’s still 21 and is pitching well in A-ball. He needs to stay healthy (obviously). Control is an issue but he’s basically un-hittable in A-ball. I’d expect him to move up and he can be an excellent pitcher.

Craig Hansen may be their future closer. Out of all the players, I think he’s the best acquisition. People are low on him due to just not recovering from a failed major league opportunity. The Pirates bullpen are in need of a guy like Hansen who has unbelievable stuff and just needs a chance to put it together. No pressure and he should THRIVE. He’s still just 24 and expect him to see him in a closers role very soon. Expect Hansen to be a hot commodity in the next few years at the trade deadline. He was sold low and has struggled but if he puts it back together…

Brandon Moss: Was a hot commodity and was waiting for Coco Crisp to be traded. He can play CF/LF and will likely suit up in left. He has 20+ home run power and can take a walk and hits for average. Strikes out too much to my liking. Major league ready and he’ll easily replace Bay (well not easily…). Bucs Dugout likes it, calls it quantity and quality.

Overall analysis: Great, great trade for the Bucs. 3 major leaguers for Bay who are no slouches and will start or have vital roles. Morris won’t need to pan out but he’s a good looking prospect with good stuff and just needs to move up. The Red Sox are the losers, they don’t realistically gain any ground but gave up two prospects that might’ve been useful (Moss more so) and 7 million bucks. The Dodgers slightly get better but at the cost of a great prospect and for just a few months.

As first reported by si.com’s Jon Heyman, a very late 3-team trade has been completed, involving Jason Bay and Manny Ramirez. Ramirez will go to the LA Dodgers, with Jason Bay headed to Boston from Pittsburgh to replace him, while the Pirates will receive four prospects. Ken Rosenthal of Foxsports.com has the four prospects going to Pittsburgh as follows: third baseman Andy Laroche and right-handed pitcher Bryan Morris from the Dodgers, and outfielder Brandon Moss and reliever Craig Hansen from the Red Sox. Both sources also report that Ramirez has consented to the trade and will also waive his two $20 million club options for the 2009 and 2010 seasons, meaning Manny will hit the free agent market this winter. The Red Sox will also pay the final $7 million of Ramirez’s contract. Stay tuned for more information shortly, as a news conference appears to be scheduled within the hour.

If someone told me the notoriously tight-fisted Florida Marlins would end up with Manny Ramirez just four days ago I would have laughed in their face. Well, now it appears it could happen. SI.com’s Jon Heyman is reporting Manny will waive his 10-5 rights (10 years in the major leagues, 5 with the same team) in a trade to Florida. The problem is, the trade has hit some snags. The 3-team deal involving Boston, Florida and Pittsburgh would see — as of right now — Manny going to Florida, Jason Bay moving from Pittsburgh to Boston to replace Manny in left field, and Pittsburgh receiving prospects from the Marlins and Red Sox, including outfielders Jeremy Hermida and Mike Stanton and pitcher Ryan Tucker from the Marlins. The snag that has hit this shocking blockbuster is the prospects going to Pittsburgh. Florida wishes to keep the highly-touted Stanton. This will most likely go down to the last minute of the deadline, and is shaping up to be a repeat of the four-team Nomar Garciaparra trade Boston pulled in 2004 with the Cubs, Minnesota and Montreal. Stay tuned for updates on what is turning into the surprise of the season: a $20 million player going to a team with a $22 million total payroll.
UPDATE: Well, the surprise of the season appears to be dead, according to both Espn.com’s Peter Gammons and Jayson Stark. While there is still time for this deal to work out, the whole situation sounds pretty confusing from all three sides, and it’s not quite clear if one party is to blame, or if all three are at fault. I’ll break it down with a full analysis at the end of the deadline when more details come in and the stories start to become clearer. In the meantime the focus now turns to the Pirates, who could still deal Jason Bay to one of many suitors. Reports have the Rays and, surprisingly, the Blue Jays inquiring about the British Columbia native’s services. Stay tuned, it should be a wild final two hours.

It’s official: Manny Ramirez’s act has worn its welcome out in Boston. For a team who’s history has been littered with characters, loveable goofballs and the downright strange (see Bill Lee, aka “Spaceman”) it’s not surprising a guy with Manny’s idiosyncrasies lasted this long in Beantown. After all, he is perhaps the greatest hitter not named A-Rod of this generation, has won two World Series, and – perhaps most surprising to the outside observer – his work ethic when it comes to hitting is unparalleled in all of baseball.

We’re used to the Manny trade stories that have popped up almost constantly since 2003, although nothing has ever come of these rumors. But ever since his well-publicized run-in with the Red Sox travelling secretary it has been downhill between player and team. Before Sunday’s game against the Yankees, Ramirez told the Associated Press, “I’m tired of them. They’re tired of me.”
It is now clear the Sox want to be rid of Manny, as the headaches have gotten to the point where even some of Red Sox Nation — arguably the most loyal group of supporters in all of baseball — are starting to turn on him.

However it isn’t going to be that easy to get rid of him. They can wait until the end of the season and not pick up his $20 million option, or they can try and trade him now. The catch is that Manny has 10-5 rights – meaning he has played 10 years in the league, split evenly between two teams (5 years with Cleveland, 5 with Boston) – which allow him to veto any trade. According to espn.com Manny is finished with Boston and won’t block any deal they try to make. But will teams trade a good package for him knowing they would have to endure the constant questions about picking up his two $20 million options, which would extend his contract through 2010?

As a hitter Manny is far and away in the top two all time this generation, so his name carries a cache with it that clubs looking to win will gravitate towards. So where might Manny end up? Here are some possibilities, some more likely than others:

• Mets: We know Omar Minaya loves him, and we know Manny would love to go to New York. But the Mets farm system is now barren thanks to the Johan Santana trade; as a result they cannot afford to give up somebody like Fernando Martinez – their only true number one prospect remaining – for what could be a rental player. Plus, since their managerial change the Mets have been rolling. Why stir up the chemistry when your hot? I can’t see it happening now, but if he becomes a free agent this off-season the Mets will jump all over him.

• Phillies: The Phillies are a logical suitor for Manny. Philadelphia loves charachters and Ramirez would fit right into the culture there. We also know that he has a very strong relationship with manager Charlie Manuel. As well, Pat Gillick may be looking to make a big splash to hold off the surging Mets, as well as leave for retirement on top. The drawbacks, though few, are important to consider: Pat Burrell, who would almost certainly be included in the deal going back to Boston, has a monster contract and a no-trade clause which he has refused to wave numerous times over the past few seasons; he is also currently having a better year than Ramirez. Plus, Manny can’t play right field, where Burrell currently patrols for Philly. If I were Philadelphia I’d focus on getting some pitching, however as Jays fans are well aware Pat Gillick always has something up his sleeve. Watch them closely.

• Dodgers: The Dodgers have a very deep talent pool the Sox can draw from, and Manny would certainly push them to the top of a very week NL West. It makes a lot of sense for both clubs for a trade that would include, among others, James Loney going back to Beantown. The question for Los Angeles would be do you mortgage your future in a weak division where you have a chance to win with the status quo?

• Angels: They need one more big bat to make their team complete, and wouldn’t that line-up of Vladimir Guerrero and Ramirez be dangerous? Owner Arte Moreno isn’t afraid to spend the big bucks to put his team over the top, and even though they have stood pat in recent years expect them to make a push for something big this deadline – which is why Manny Ramirez is on their radar, and people are picking the Halos to land his services. After all, they do have some pretty good young players that would get a trade done. But would Boston really trade Manny to a team that they could face in the first round of the playoffs? And if the Angels have an overcrowded and expensive outfield now, what will they do if Manny joins the club? Boston most likely wouldn’t take Gary Matthews Jr’s contract back, so the Angels would have a major problem to deal with there.

• Rays: This would almost certainly not happen because Boston is battling Tampa for the division, but they are interesting to consider for a couple of reasons. Number one, if Boston is looking for prospects Tampa Bay has the deepest system in the league this side of Milwaukee. They could afford to trade some amazing young talent to get the power bat they so desperately need. Like I said, it won’t happen, but keep an eye on Tampa if Manny becomes a free agent, or in a trade later this off-season.

I’m leaning towards the Dodgers and Phillies if he is traded, but the most likely scenario will be for the Sox to take a deep breath and make one more run with Manny in tow, then forget his club option and let him walk after the World Series. But regardless of his second-half and post-season performance for the Red Sox – even if he were to win both the ALCS and World Series MVP awards — he will not be a Boston Red Sox next season. The only question is who will take a chance on the volatile superstar.

With surprises there is always the other side of the story, the duds, let downs and players with promise that just vastly underperformed.  Maxmillien here to give what I think are the biggest letdowns of 2008 thus far.

Biggest Letdown Player: Boston Red Sox Catcher Jason Varitek
Ok so here’s the deal.  Varitek may not truly be the biggest disappointment.  ESPN cited Andruw Jones and their argument is very well put.  If Jones continues like this he will have the worst hitting season ever!  But I chose Varitek because he has personally hurt me.  Early in the season I traded for him.  The deal was A.J. Pierzynski and Mark Buehrle for Jason Varitek and Dustin McGowan.  Varitek has been disgraceful since I aquired him.  His average is down to .220 (and has dipped below that) and he was at one time mired in a 6-63 slump!  Making matters worse, he was selected to the All Star game, marking possible the most ridiculous All Star Game starter since Yanic Perrault started for The Phoenix Coyotes in the NHL All Star Game a few years ago.  Varitek, discover your bat so I can start you again!

Biggest Letdown Pitcher: San Franscisco P Barry Zito
Now this may be a cop out because for being paid so much he manages to do so little.  But to the MLB leader in losses, at a record of 2-12 with an ERA of 5.62 and a WHIP of 1.79, Zito is just pathetic.  He has yet to crack 100 Innings Pitched this season and has only mustered 62 K’s in his 97 IP.  Honorable mention must go to Brad Penny, Aaron Harang & Justin Verlander but Zito’s combo of overpaid, terrible numbers and the fact that he is on my leagues waiver wire puts Zito here.

Biggest Letdown Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Perhaps this is a homer pick as I have had to live through ever moment of Blue Jays hype and then letdown, but the Toronto Blue Jays came into this season with so much promise.  After a ridiculous May there was tons of hype that the Jays may for once play meaningful games in September.  Then there was the crash down.  Several losses in a row, capped by an almost no-hitter from ex-Jay Dave Bush led to the firing of Coach John Gibbons and the hire of long lost relic Cito Gaston.  Since then the Jays have been mediocre to bad and GM J.P. Riccardi has almost all but forfeited the season for good.  When the hitting was bad, the pitching was great and when the pitchers started to stumble, the bats come alive.  Injuries to 2B Aaron Hill, OF Vernon Wells, P Dustin McGowan and Shawn Marcum have all left a sour taste in Blue Jays fans mouths. Sitting 9.5 games back the Jays must scrap another promising season and begin to re-build again, count on the firing of GM Riccardi.