Sport Chit Chat

Disclaimer: I suck at MLB playoff predictions. I just don’t have a good handle for whatever reason. So you may do better betting against my picks.

Milwaukee Brewers (+155) vs Philadelphia Phillies (-175)
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers in 5
Why: Pitching counts. Let’s compare rotations. Milwaukee has Gollardo, Sabathia, Suppan, Bush and Sheets who can pitch if the latter two suck. I don’t see a major upgrade between the Phillies, sure they have Utley, Rollins and Howard but the Brew crew have their fair share of talent on the field in Fielder, Braun, Hardy etc. Their role players are just better imo. I say the Phillies are the slightly better team but they don’t impress me and I’ll take the odds at +155.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+170) vs Chicago Cubs (-200)
Pick: Chicago Cubs in 4
I think the stuff about LA’s pitching staff being better is a pile of crap. Zambrano, Lilly, Harden and Dempster is pretty formidable. The Dodger’s staff is backed by the pitcher park friendly so stats wise they benefit. I just think it’s the Cubs year and people just will root as hard as they can for the Cubs. 100 years…
The Dodgers do have momentum on their side but they played in a mediocre division.

Boston Red Sox (+125) vs LAAoA (-145)
Pick: Toss up. Angels in 5?
This one is too close to call, the Sox have more post season experience having just won but they are a lot of injury question marks. I personally don’t like the Angels all that much but I think they could get it done. The Sox have good value here as a slight underdog.

Tampa Bay Rays (-170) vs Chicago White Sox (+150)
Pick: Rays in 3 or 4.
The White Sox tired out their pitchers trying to win the central division and offensively they can’t bring it to the Rays solid corps. I’m not too high on the Sox pitching either. Shields, Kazmir, Garza are as good as a top 3 as you are going to get.

The Chicago Cubs are currently the league’s best team based on team records. It’s also been 100 years since they last won a world series (yes 1908) and could they be poised for another one? My prediction is yes, not only it’s the story most baseball would want to see (after their own respective teams falter) but the team is more then capable. Let’s take a look at their team to dissect what makes it’s good.

Pitching: Acquiring Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin in what is referred to as robbery regardless of Harden’s health puts the rotation as Zambrano, Lilly, Harden, Dempster and (shudder) Marquis. The top 3 is as good as you’ll probably get with two guys who are aces and Lilly is a respectable #3. Dempster has been pitching out of his skin, I can see him struggling down the road but you never know. Thankfully Marquis won’t need to pitch during the playoffs. The pen is held by Kerry Wood, Marmol, Gaudin (who can start), Howry, Cotts and Marshall as well as Samardzija. The bullpen is a wildcard but he’s been good so far.

Hitting: Lee, Ramirez, Soto and Soriano have been the star performances. They’ve gotten great work out of their role players like Sparky (Reed Johnson), DeRosa and Theriot. One downside would probably be Fukudome but he takes a walk so is useful in that regard.

The Cubs aren’t a very sexy pick to be honest. They’ve just been an all-around good time with come back victories and winning important series in one of the tougher divisions in baseball. They’ve played great when they needed and aren’t a shabby team themselves.

Here are their opponents:
Chicago White Sox and/or Minnesota Twins: I see either or both hard press to make it out of the AL against the likes of Tampa Bay, Boston and LAA.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels are good but not as good as you think. They are in the worst division in baseball with their next competition coming in the way of the Texas Rangers who they are 16 games up on and will be the first team to clinch a playoff spot. They almost got swept by Tampa Bay but they did own the Red Sox and Yankees when they came into town. I think both Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders are more likely then good and the only pitcher that can probably hold their own during the playoffs is Lackey. Their pitching has been lucky for the most part, their Pythagorean record is 72-61 9 games worse then their record, suggesting that they are winning close games (as evidenced by KRods save count). I think their regression will either occur during the end of the season in which they are due for a slump or in the playoffs. It’s nice having an awesome closer but not good enough.

Tampa Bay Rays - great team. Inexperienced. Would be cool if they made it to the playoffs and while I think they are capable, generally veteran experience is sometimes needed.

Boston Red Sox - everyone says that Boston will likely face the Cubs in the WS, I tend to agree. Unless their injuries creates further problems (which they may even miss the playoffs with the Twins very close). I think I would’ve said the Red Sox would be still winning it BEFORE the Manny deal. I’m not sure now and when the Red Sox go to the NL, the Ortiz problem creates an issue.

Milwaukee Brewers - Cubs owned them.

Phillies/Mets - whomever wins, I doubt they would stand a chance against the Brew Crew’s pitching.

Arizona Diamonbacks - this first round match will be a tough one. They have a great rotation and may be hard press to win the first two games (Haren + Webb)…but Arizona’s defense with Dunn in right and a lot of their offense out, Chicago may squeak out against them. I think Arizona gives the Cubs a big enough push that they don’t look back and win it.

We’ll see come October. I’m rooting for the Cubs nontheless even though I’m not a fan. It’s just a feel good story with the most popular team in baseball worldwide (suck it Yanks/Bosox) looks to win one after a century of futility.

The Chicago Cubs, the team with the best record in the NL, decided to counter the Milwaukee Brewers today by acquiring not just one solid starting pitcher but two. The deal is Harden and Gaudin to the Cubs for Sean Gallagher, Matt Murton, Eric Patterson and Josh Donaldson.

Let’s look at what the Cubs get in the first place:

Rich Harden: It’s easy to judge Rich Harden but not so easy to determine his value. He’s a guy with ace stuff but can’t stay healthy. Who knows what the future brings for Harden. He’s been great this year though putting up a 2.34 ERA in 77 innings. He’s also just 26 with a 7 million club option for 2009. Basically the Cubs get him for 2 and 1/2 seasons at least.

Chad Gaudin: Was arguably JP Riccardi’s worst move. Giving up a guy who is was dominating AAA at 22 years old for Dustin Majewski an older prospect who’s likely topped out at AA. Gaudin has put up respectable numbers since being traded to the A’s. He spent one good year out of the pen and the A’s decided to put him back in the rotation where he’s been an above average pitcher. He will be controlled for 3 years as well which is a big key. Guys like Gaudin who are under control are worth much more.

The Cubs rotation now looks like: Zambrano, Harden, Lilly, Gaudin and Ryan Dempster. Excellente.

The Cubs gave up:
Sean Gallagher is a 22-year old who’s an excellent prospect who’s major league ready. Other then stats and hearing his name in trade rumors quite a ton, I never quite read a scouting report on him. He was the 3rd best prospect coming into this year behind Soto and Vitters. He throws 89-91 typically but can get it up to 94. The problem I see is that he’s not dominating enough and some believe he may end up being a #4 (projects as a #2 at best) and doesn’t have ace potential. Still great numbers in the minors though.

Matt Murton is a 26-year old 4th outfielder type that is probably deserving of a job. He’s a solid hitter who deserves a shot to start and probably could put some decent numbers.

Eric Patterson, brother of Corey would be a great prospect…if only he could play defense at 2B. Otherwise he’s got a decent bat with some nice pop and a good batting eye. He may end up being an outfielder and he is probably most valuable at CF…but the A’s have someone else there. He’s major league ready and finding a defensive position he can settle into will be key.

Josh Donaldson is a 22-year old catching prospect in A-ball. He’s really struggled with a .205 avg this season. He’s a first round pick out of the 2007 draft and is an alright prospect. He was considered the Cubs 6th best prospect but with his struggle is probably dipping a bit.

On paper the Cubs got the 3rd, 4th and 6th best prospects. However it doesn’t look to encouraging. Gallagher can be a stud but the other players I’m not so sure about.

The Brewers gave up just as much with LaPorta likely going to be a stud and they are only getting Sabathia for a few months (guaranteed anyway). The Cubs are getting BOTH Harden and Gaudin for 3 years making it a landslide.

Kind of a poor deal on the A’s part for not getting a package like they got for Haren. I don’t really get it. Eric Patterson doesn’t look to have a position on their team and Donaldson is very far and could fall off in A-ball with his struggles. Gallagher is a good prospect BUT he’s not enough.

Cubs win this trade easily.

Here are some blogger reactions:
Athletics Nation trusts the A’s brass with this one but is a little disappointed they didn’t get an impact bat.
Melissa Lockhart - regrets not being able to see Harden reach his potential
Cubs Locker - thinks that the Cubs will regret it if Harden is hurt again (I still think its a solid deal though, definitely worth the risk)