Sport Chit Chat

Disclaimer: I suck at MLB playoff predictions. I just don’t have a good handle for whatever reason. So you may do better betting against my picks.

Milwaukee Brewers (+155) vs Philadelphia Phillies (-175)
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers in 5
Why: Pitching counts. Let’s compare rotations. Milwaukee has Gollardo, Sabathia, Suppan, Bush and Sheets who can pitch if the latter two suck. I don’t see a major upgrade between the Phillies, sure they have Utley, Rollins and Howard but the Brew crew have their fair share of talent on the field in Fielder, Braun, Hardy etc. Their role players are just better imo. I say the Phillies are the slightly better team but they don’t impress me and I’ll take the odds at +155.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+170) vs Chicago Cubs (-200)
Pick: Chicago Cubs in 4
I think the stuff about LA’s pitching staff being better is a pile of crap. Zambrano, Lilly, Harden and Dempster is pretty formidable. The Dodger’s staff is backed by the pitcher park friendly so stats wise they benefit. I just think it’s the Cubs year and people just will root as hard as they can for the Cubs. 100 years…
The Dodgers do have momentum on their side but they played in a mediocre division.

Boston Red Sox (+125) vs LAAoA (-145)
Pick: Toss up. Angels in 5?
This one is too close to call, the Sox have more post season experience having just won but they are a lot of injury question marks. I personally don’t like the Angels all that much but I think they could get it done. The Sox have good value here as a slight underdog.

Tampa Bay Rays (-170) vs Chicago White Sox (+150)
Pick: Rays in 3 or 4.
The White Sox tired out their pitchers trying to win the central division and offensively they can’t bring it to the Rays solid corps. I’m not too high on the Sox pitching either. Shields, Kazmir, Garza are as good as a top 3 as you are going to get.

The Chicago Cubs are currently the league’s best team based on team records. It’s also been 100 years since they last won a world series (yes 1908) and could they be poised for another one? My prediction is yes, not only it’s the story most baseball would want to see (after their own respective teams falter) but the team is more then capable. Let’s take a look at their team to dissect what makes it’s good.

Pitching: Acquiring Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin in what is referred to as robbery regardless of Harden’s health puts the rotation as Zambrano, Lilly, Harden, Dempster and (shudder) Marquis. The top 3 is as good as you’ll probably get with two guys who are aces and Lilly is a respectable #3. Dempster has been pitching out of his skin, I can see him struggling down the road but you never know. Thankfully Marquis won’t need to pitch during the playoffs. The pen is held by Kerry Wood, Marmol, Gaudin (who can start), Howry, Cotts and Marshall as well as Samardzija. The bullpen is a wildcard but he’s been good so far.

Hitting: Lee, Ramirez, Soto and Soriano have been the star performances. They’ve gotten great work out of their role players like Sparky (Reed Johnson), DeRosa and Theriot. One downside would probably be Fukudome but he takes a walk so is useful in that regard.

The Cubs aren’t a very sexy pick to be honest. They’ve just been an all-around good time with come back victories and winning important series in one of the tougher divisions in baseball. They’ve played great when they needed and aren’t a shabby team themselves.

Here are their opponents:
Chicago White Sox and/or Minnesota Twins: I see either or both hard press to make it out of the AL against the likes of Tampa Bay, Boston and LAA.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels are good but not as good as you think. They are in the worst division in baseball with their next competition coming in the way of the Texas Rangers who they are 16 games up on and will be the first team to clinch a playoff spot. They almost got swept by Tampa Bay but they did own the Red Sox and Yankees when they came into town. I think both Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders are more likely then good and the only pitcher that can probably hold their own during the playoffs is Lackey. Their pitching has been lucky for the most part, their Pythagorean record is 72-61 9 games worse then their record, suggesting that they are winning close games (as evidenced by KRods save count). I think their regression will either occur during the end of the season in which they are due for a slump or in the playoffs. It’s nice having an awesome closer but not good enough.

Tampa Bay Rays - great team. Inexperienced. Would be cool if they made it to the playoffs and while I think they are capable, generally veteran experience is sometimes needed.

Boston Red Sox - everyone says that Boston will likely face the Cubs in the WS, I tend to agree. Unless their injuries creates further problems (which they may even miss the playoffs with the Twins very close). I think I would’ve said the Red Sox would be still winning it BEFORE the Manny deal. I’m not sure now and when the Red Sox go to the NL, the Ortiz problem creates an issue.

Milwaukee Brewers - Cubs owned them.

Phillies/Mets - whomever wins, I doubt they would stand a chance against the Brew Crew’s pitching.

Arizona Diamonbacks - this first round match will be a tough one. They have a great rotation and may be hard press to win the first two games (Haren + Webb)…but Arizona’s defense with Dunn in right and a lot of their offense out, Chicago may squeak out against them. I think Arizona gives the Cubs a big enough push that they don’t look back and win it.

We’ll see come October. I’m rooting for the Cubs nontheless even though I’m not a fan. It’s just a feel good story with the most popular team in baseball worldwide (suck it Yanks/Bosox) looks to win one after a century of futility.

It is official: Mark Teixeira is on his way to Anaheim. Both the Atlanta Braves and the Angels confirmed they have struck a deal that will see Teixeira go to the Halos in exchange for first baseman Casey Kotchman and reliever Stephen Marek. Espn.com’s Jayson Stark reported that Kotchman was pulled off the field during warm-ups at Fenway Park earlier this afternoon, which would undoubtedly signal an imminent trade.

Teixeira’s name has been bandied about in trade rumors for weeks as an impending free agent playing with a struggling team in Atlanta. He will go to an Anaheim club that once again has the best record in baseball, and has clearly been one more impact hitter away from taking the next step for a few years now. What is unclear, however, is if the 28 year-old will stay in Anaheim beyond the end of this year. Most of the baseball world expect Teixeira to head to free agency in the winter, where he could command a salary in the $20 million a year range. Teixeira is hitting .283 with 20 home runs and 78 RBI this season.

Meanwhile, the 25 year-old Kotchman is in his 5th major-league season and brings his .287 average, 12 home runs and 54 RBI to Atlanta, along with stellar defense at first base. Kotchman is under Atlanta’s control until after the 2011 season, with three years of arbitration remaining, something that was no doubt key for Atlanta in making this deal. Marek, a 24 year-old right-hander currently with Arkansas of the Texas League, has a 3.66 ERA and 57 srikeouts in 46.2 innings of work, all in relief.
The statistics of Kotchman and Teixeira are fairly even, save for more home runs from Tex and a sightly higher average from Kotchman. The home runs are the key for the Angels in this first baseman swap, where they have needed another masher for quite some time. Now their lineup boasts the power of Teixeira, Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter, among others. With this strong of a line-up from 1 to 9 and a pitching staff that has hitters shaking from the moment they get to the ballpark, and most importantly, playoff experience both on the field and in the dugout, this Angels team that already has the best record in baseball is, in my opinion, the new favourite to take the American League pennant.

The danger for the Halos, however, is that both Teixeira and Francisco Rodriguez are free agents after this year, and what looks to be a powerhouse in the making could come crumbling down after the season just as fast. Arte Moreno is known for spending whatever it takes to win, and I would expect him to make both of them big offers during the off-season. This will be an interesting summer — and for that matter, an interesting winter as well — in Orange County.

On the Braves end, this deal is simply trying to get something for Teixeira, who is clearly out of Atlanta’s price range this off-season, as well as hastening the rebuilding process for 2009 in what has become a lost season. The Braves certainly didn’t get the farm they sent to Texas last July 31st, but they got one of the most underrated first baseman in the game as well as a solid relief prospect in double-A. Kotchman may not hit as many home runs as Teixeira, but his defence and RBI production will be welcomed with open arms in Atlanta. And with Kotchman under team control until 2011, Atlanta has another building block to work with as they continue to get back into the very tough National League East.