Sport Chit Chat

Disclaimer: I suck at MLB playoff predictions. I just don’t have a good handle for whatever reason. So you may do better betting against my picks.

Milwaukee Brewers (+155) vs Philadelphia Phillies (-175)
Pick: Milwaukee Brewers in 5
Why: Pitching counts. Let’s compare rotations. Milwaukee has Gollardo, Sabathia, Suppan, Bush and Sheets who can pitch if the latter two suck. I don’t see a major upgrade between the Phillies, sure they have Utley, Rollins and Howard but the Brew crew have their fair share of talent on the field in Fielder, Braun, Hardy etc. Their role players are just better imo. I say the Phillies are the slightly better team but they don’t impress me and I’ll take the odds at +155.

Los Angeles Dodgers (+170) vs Chicago Cubs (-200)
Pick: Chicago Cubs in 4
I think the stuff about LA’s pitching staff being better is a pile of crap. Zambrano, Lilly, Harden and Dempster is pretty formidable. The Dodger’s staff is backed by the pitcher park friendly so stats wise they benefit. I just think it’s the Cubs year and people just will root as hard as they can for the Cubs. 100 years…
The Dodgers do have momentum on their side but they played in a mediocre division.

Boston Red Sox (+125) vs LAAoA (-145)
Pick: Toss up. Angels in 5?
This one is too close to call, the Sox have more post season experience having just won but they are a lot of injury question marks. I personally don’t like the Angels all that much but I think they could get it done. The Sox have good value here as a slight underdog.

Tampa Bay Rays (-170) vs Chicago White Sox (+150)
Pick: Rays in 3 or 4.
The White Sox tired out their pitchers trying to win the central division and offensively they can’t bring it to the Rays solid corps. I’m not too high on the Sox pitching either. Shields, Kazmir, Garza are as good as a top 3 as you are going to get.

The Chicago Cubs are currently the league’s best team based on team records. It’s also been 100 years since they last won a world series (yes 1908) and could they be poised for another one? My prediction is yes, not only it’s the story most baseball would want to see (after their own respective teams falter) but the team is more then capable. Let’s take a look at their team to dissect what makes it’s good.

Pitching: Acquiring Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin in what is referred to as robbery regardless of Harden’s health puts the rotation as Zambrano, Lilly, Harden, Dempster and (shudder) Marquis. The top 3 is as good as you’ll probably get with two guys who are aces and Lilly is a respectable #3. Dempster has been pitching out of his skin, I can see him struggling down the road but you never know. Thankfully Marquis won’t need to pitch during the playoffs. The pen is held by Kerry Wood, Marmol, Gaudin (who can start), Howry, Cotts and Marshall as well as Samardzija. The bullpen is a wildcard but he’s been good so far.

Hitting: Lee, Ramirez, Soto and Soriano have been the star performances. They’ve gotten great work out of their role players like Sparky (Reed Johnson), DeRosa and Theriot. One downside would probably be Fukudome but he takes a walk so is useful in that regard.

The Cubs aren’t a very sexy pick to be honest. They’ve just been an all-around good time with come back victories and winning important series in one of the tougher divisions in baseball. They’ve played great when they needed and aren’t a shabby team themselves.

Here are their opponents:
Chicago White Sox and/or Minnesota Twins: I see either or both hard press to make it out of the AL against the likes of Tampa Bay, Boston and LAA.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: The Angels are good but not as good as you think. They are in the worst division in baseball with their next competition coming in the way of the Texas Rangers who they are 16 games up on and will be the first team to clinch a playoff spot. They almost got swept by Tampa Bay but they did own the Red Sox and Yankees when they came into town. I think both Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders are more likely then good and the only pitcher that can probably hold their own during the playoffs is Lackey. Their pitching has been lucky for the most part, their Pythagorean record is 72-61 9 games worse then their record, suggesting that they are winning close games (as evidenced by KRods save count). I think their regression will either occur during the end of the season in which they are due for a slump or in the playoffs. It’s nice having an awesome closer but not good enough.

Tampa Bay Rays - great team. Inexperienced. Would be cool if they made it to the playoffs and while I think they are capable, generally veteran experience is sometimes needed.

Boston Red Sox - everyone says that Boston will likely face the Cubs in the WS, I tend to agree. Unless their injuries creates further problems (which they may even miss the playoffs with the Twins very close). I think I would’ve said the Red Sox would be still winning it BEFORE the Manny deal. I’m not sure now and when the Red Sox go to the NL, the Ortiz problem creates an issue.

Milwaukee Brewers - Cubs owned them.

Phillies/Mets - whomever wins, I doubt they would stand a chance against the Brew Crew’s pitching.

Arizona Diamonbacks - this first round match will be a tough one. They have a great rotation and may be hard press to win the first two games (Haren + Webb)…but Arizona’s defense with Dunn in right and a lot of their offense out, Chicago may squeak out against them. I think Arizona gives the Cubs a big enough push that they don’t look back and win it.

We’ll see come October. I’m rooting for the Cubs nontheless even though I’m not a fan. It’s just a feel good story with the most popular team in baseball worldwide (suck it Yanks/Bosox) looks to win one after a century of futility.

Greetings.  Here for another fantasy chit chat is your man, Maxmillien.  I tackled the NBA the last time around and am now going to dive into some fantasy baseball analysis.  As the All Star Break are upon us, I decided that this would be no better a time to hand out some mid season awards.

Biggest Surprise Player:  Texas Ranger OF Josh Hamilton
What else can one say?  21 HR, 93 RBI and hitting a stunning .313; nobody saw this coming.  After some early career issues with drugs Josh Hamilton has come on HUGE this season and is leading the American League in RBI’s (25 ahead of 2nd place Justin Morneau!).  He is tied for 2nd in HR’s with Carlos Quentin and is only one dinger behind AL leader Grady Sizemore.  He is further behind in the total MLB stats but who cares, Josh Hamilton is the man.

Biggest Surprise Pitcher: Cinncinati Reds P Edinson Volquez
As someone who may have gone undrafted in your pool, Volquez sits with an 12-3 record, 126 K’s a 2.295 ERA and a respectable 1.241 WHIP.  If you nabbed him early in the season, or drafted him with the idea he was going to be this good, kudos to you. He’s 2nd in the MLB in ERA.  Hopefully he can keep it up as there has been chatter of him slowing down, but it hasn’t happened yet so ride him out!

Biggest Surprise Team: Tampa Bay Rays
Who even knew 3 of the 9 starters on the Rays before the season even started and now they have a plethora of fantasy worthy players.  They’ve gone from worst to first and are atop the AL East standings by 1.5 games.  All of their starters have come into their own, especially young star Evan Longoria (.281 and 16 HR) and B.J. Upton (27 SB).  Other team surprises have been the .303 hitting of C Dioner Navarro (added to the AL All Star Team), 2nd baseman Akinori Iwamura and team ERA leader P Matt Garza (who almost threw a no-hitter 2 starts ago).  I’m on the bandwagon and there is always space for more.  Let’s just hope a late charge by either the Yanks or Bo Sox doesn’t knock them out of the playoffs.

P.S. For another opinion check out ESPN’s Jayson Stark’s article “Honoring the very best (and worst) of the first half”