Sport Chit Chat

Randy “The Natural” Couture
DOB: June 22, 1963
Height = 6 foot 1
Weight = 220 lbs
Record: 16-8-1
Notable losses: Chuck Liddell X2, Vitor Belfort (cut), Josh Barnett, Ricco Rodriguez, Valentijn Overeem, Enson Inoue

Strengths: Roman Greco Wrestling (in turns leads to good take downs and a top notch clinch game), game planning, high level of pace and quickness

Weaknesses: Lack of size for a HW, no submission game proving difficult to finish some opponents, age

Brock Lesnar
Height: 6 foot 3
Weight: 265 (at weigh in)
Record: 2-1
Only Loss; Frank Mir (or Murr according to Lesnar)

Strengths: strength, wrestling, heavy fists, general athleticism

Weaknesses: prone to submissions, refusal to put hooks and pull own submissions, inexperience (handicapping becomes difficult due to this in turn), questionable cardio, poor instincts due to inexperience. He’s shown some major improvements but because it’s still

Both guys have their question marks that make them almost unbettable. Randy is 45, Brock has the body of a champion and the skills to be a high level fighter but the problem is inexperience. His inexperience entails a lot of things including his jiujitsu skills, his scrambling instincts and the level of his striking.

How will the fight go?

Randy will try to measure Brock with counter punching. Then he will try to put Brock on his back and see how he reacts. Randy might pull off some ground and pound will Brock tries to buck him off. If Brock secures a takedown, he will probably finish Couture. His ground and pound is lethal and there shouldn’t be a reason with Brock’s strength that he will be able to at least hold him down and thus tire out Randy. I really think Randy has to work harder for a victory then Brock.

Who’s the better bet? Brock but it’s still a coin toss. (The odds coincide)

I probably stand to lose some money as I’ve sprinkled some money on some big dogs and hope to pull even with my favorite pick.

Patrick Cote (around +550) or Anderson Silva (around -750)
Before betting make sure you find the best sports book that has the best line. Due to being such a big underdog fight, Silva has ranged from -650 to -1150.

Anderson Silva is the MOST overrated fighter in the world. Beyond Fedor as it stands. It’s warranted and he has the skills but the way he’s nuthugged is ridiculous. I don’t think a MMA fight should ever be more then -500 unless you are Fedor (who is literally the best all around). Silva has weaknesses which are involved with his takedown defense and his grappling. The notion that he has wordclass jiu-jitsu is absurd. You WANT to take down Spider and people have done it at will. (See Okami, Takase)

Patrick Cote is probably not the fighter to take down Anderson but to give Cote zero chance, standing and on their feet is a joke. I’m not saying Andy is going to take Cote light but with the right gameplan and a tempered aggression can show you some of Silva’s weaknesses. Cote needs a lot of luck to win but I think he’ll at least impress. P.S. Cote will back away for the first two minutes trying to measure Anderson. Eventually he’ll try to work a clinch game and bait the Thai plumb and take down Silva. What happens from there will determine the winner.
Pick: No one in the right mind is willing to risk 7 dollars to make one. Just makes no sense from a logistic stand point. I’d rather put my money into the stock market. Sprinkle some money on Cote.

Thiago Alves (+120) vs Josh Koscheck (-150)
Pick: Toss up/advantage Koscheck
I’m surprised Alves made weight. Diego Sanchez impied that Alves has a enhanced body and while Alves has been caught with illegal substances before, it definitely makes sense but that’s kind of mean. I don’t know how Alves manages to moves but he’s going to be to raise that level is Koscheck can takedown the best (see GSP). However Alves can scare Koscheck away with his striking. Advantage goes to Koscheck though since he does have good enough striking now while Alves has no real ground game.

Gray Maynard (-225) vs Rich Clementi (+185)
Pick: Maynard but Clementi is great value here.
Maynard was going to be one of my picks and must to my disdain, Maynard is a huge favorite. Maynard has zero value due to inexperience. While Clementi is good match up for Maynard it isnt out of order to see Clementi subbing or outworking Maynard.

Fabricio Werdum (-750) vs Junior Dos Santos (+550)
Sprinkled money on JDS. Though I know nothing about him.
Why is Werdum a -750? He really didn’t impressed me on his feet against Arlovski. We found that he can pass Vera’s guard and got a early ref stoppage. I’m just not as impressed with him.

Tyson Griffin (+220) vs Sean Sherk (-270)
Pick: Sherk all day long.
Tyson Griffin is incredibly overrated. He used to be an exciting fighter but since he’s been afraid to wrestle grapplers and used is striking which is okay but very boring. Griffin’s wrestling will be tested but look for it to go the way of Edgar vs Griffin but with more domination. Griffin might make it look close but Sherk will outclass him.

Quick Picks:
Thales Leites vs Drew McFedries: at -455, Leites takes it. Worth a parlay.
Franca vs Aurelio: Franca has the striking advantage and I could see him KOing Aurelio.
Pete Sell vs Josh Burkman - at +180 I like Sell here, not much to bet on but Burkman is overrated and has been lackluster inawhile. The fact that he missed weight is very telling. Pete Sell at 170 is very scary, he just gets a bad rap for getting KO’d by Nate Quarry (and that awesome KO by Smith) but ask Kalib Starnes how he feels about Quarry’s strikes (well he can’t answer you, he’s already ducking that).

UFC 89 a weak but surprise surprise FREE card. It sure couldn’t hurt to put on a good card but nonetheless with a card coming up next week as well. I sure as hell don’t mind. I don’t have much to say.

Chris “The Crippler” Leben (+180) vs Michael “The Count” Bisping (-220)
Pick: The Crippler.
Who has The Count faced that makes him so good? He lost to Rashad Evans in a close but rather decisive decision. He lucked out against Matt Hamill and in general he beats on Ju-jitsu guys/grapplers. His main strength is his technical striking but he’s been dominated based on control. He just ground and pounds weaker foes and will probably have to take it to the ground against Leben to win. The Crippler will keep moving forward and most shots will probably unfaze him. Leben’s a good bet here as an almost to 2 to 1 dog. Leben’s achilles heel are guys who are willing to go to the ground and that isnt Bisping.

Keith Jardine (+155) vs Brandon Vera (-185)
Pick: Keith Jardine. Jardine is a more proven fighter while The Truth still remains a question mark after disappoint performances. To win, Vera must be ruthless and pick up and the pace looking for the KO. Or else he will be strategically picked up by Greg Jackson and Co. Vera has more improving to do but I don’t bet my money on how good a fighter will become but what he already is and Vera is just another overrated fighter who hasn’t done squat lately.

Luiz Cane (-105) vs Sokoudjou (-125): Too CLOSE to call! Should be an awesome fight. If Cane was a bigger dog I would take him as I think Sok is overrated after some big wins.

Chris Lytle (-350) vs Paul Taylor (+280): I would take Lytle here. Not betting since he’s my favorite fighter.

Paul Kelly (+235) vs Marcus Davis (-295): Kelly’s a live dog here, the odds are justified but we’ll see if he has the moxie to pull off an upset.

Dan Hardy (+285) vs Akhiro Gono (-355): Gono is a decent fighter and Hardy will be hard pressed to beat the guy the weird blog posts.

Neil Wain (+500) vs Shane Carwin (-700): Who? (Of course I know Carwin want to see more of him before laying a big one at -700)

Liaudin (+125) vs Bielkheden (-155): Liaudin isn’t very good and is a staple on these English cards. Dominating by Diego Sanchez didn’t really give us an idea where Bielkheden is.

Terry Etim (+240) vs Sam Stout (-300): Stout is overrated? Etim shouldn’t be that big of a dog though I don’t know as much. From what I’ve seen from Stout… he doesn’t belong as a 3 to 1 favorite yet.

Back to Part I here.
Force Unleashed: That is a great trailer. It looks like you get to fight Vader at the end. I wonder if you get to kill him? That wouldn’t fit with the movies very well. It would kind of ruin the movie I just watched.

Ultimate Fighter Preview: Jose Aguilar just compared himself to Hitler and claimed the he “belongs raping and piliging dawg, straight up criminal dawg.” That’s really a terrible thing to say. I think if that is the way that all fighters are like, this is not a sport I can like.

Guida vs. Danzig: I pick Guida. He reminds me of this guy I went to highschool with. It’s the hair.

3:19 left in fight: I have no idea what just happened or who was hurt more, but Guida just got on Danzig’s back. But that move beforehand was awesome. They were just entangled. Guida is going to kill this guy… Danzig looks like Helo from Battlestar Gallactica.

I haven’t written much this round because I have been having a snack. It important to stay full while watching the UFC. I don’t want to do it on an empty stomach.

Wow Guida just ended by pummelling the shit out of a guy.
That was a great fight.
And a dedication to those who were affected by Hurricane Ike. This is a surprisingly well spoken man. Considering that the last guy just got angry.

Wow the screen just showed 3 hot UFC fans. I think the entire point of that was “see there are just dicks here, there are a few big boobs as well.” Essentially a way of saying “women like the UFC too.”

I’m fairly certain that there was a trailer for that new Dane Cook movie (it also has the guy that humps the pie in it) that was just a scene from the movie. WHY? I don’t want to watch that movie now. I already know how one scene will go. That’s just weird.

Diaz vs. Neer: Ok now its time for the marquee fight. One guy comes from a fighting family. I guess that is important. I don’t know why, but it seems like it makes sense. Maybe genetics plays a role.
Neer just called himself “the best competition” but crafted it in a way that it was a compliment to his opponent. That is sly. Well played Neer, well palyed.
The music is very chill for the entrance of the fighters. Do the fighters pick the music like baseball players pick the song that they can go to the plate to?

Nate Diaz is punching himself in the face. That is bizarre.

I pick Neer. I know I could be very wrong here. But I gotta give it a shot.

Diaz is way too crazy. He wont stop moving back and forth.

3:50 left in 1st: It looks like I am making the right choice. This Neer fellow is stronger than Diaz. I also like it that I can never forget which one is Neer, he has that big tattoo on his back with his name. Always there to remind us.

4:05 left in 2nd: Diaz is slippery. The announcers have made sure I know that. They keep saying it. But it is true. He is moving like a spider…

2:30 left in 2nd: Neer had him and couldn’t finish. You always need to finish.

Two huge punches at the end of the Second. But I didn’t see their resuly because of this stupid cut to commercial.

OK so a great third round and a good fight. It reminds me of that scene in office space where they destroy the printer. Except the printer fought back in this version. Now I wait for the final decision while I watch Burger King commercials over and over again.

Well there it is. Diaz wins. And so ends my first UFC battle. I struggled through but made it to the end. At points I wanted to stop watching, but I never let my guard down. I kept going and in the end it was worth it. UFC isn’t that bad. But I’ll take a hockey game over it any day. Sorry UFC. Maybe if it was played on ice.

Read Part II Here
I have never watched a UFC fight before. I have seen pieces of fights as I flip through channels. Or at a friend’s place if they have the TV on. But I have never sat down to watch a UFC event. As I am watching the end of Star Wars Return of the Jedi, and I am seeing commercials for this event, Nate Diaz vs. Josh Neer, and I feel the need to watch it. I mean there has to be a reason that so many people like it.

40 minutes to Fight Night Live: The death star has just fired on a Rebel cruiser. Luke is fighting the dark inside him.

30 min to: Luke kicks Vader down the stairs. “Obi-Wan has taught you well.” Now this is a fight.

2 min 45 seconds to: All the main characters are rejoicing with the Ewoks, if this is the case, who is guarding the fleet? Piloting the ships. Is noone worried that there are sill high ranking empire officials who want to attack them? Furthermore, what the hell made George Lucas decide to put the spirit of young Anakin Skywalker on the screen with Yoda and Obi-Wan? Why wouldn’t the spirit look like the Vader that died? And if they look like the young versions of themselves why isn’t Ewan McGregor’s image on the screen.

Opening Credits: Sick music.

Live from Nebraska: Is the UFC the only sport that openly associates itself with the reality show of itself? I don’t think football ever advertises “2 a Days.” Clay Guida is a scary looking guy, I wouldn’t want to meet him in an alley.

Alexander vs. Schaffer: Home town advantage. I root for Houston Alexander. He is going to give his home town a good showing. Wow. Omaha is now booing Schaffer. I didn’t know that home town fans rooted for their boys so much.

4:04 left in 1st: A great kick to the leg by Houston, but ehy are his shorts so tight and short. Can’t he wear board shorts likr the other guy?

2:10 left: Feel good story about the home town hero. But my roommate points out that a guy with 6 kids has no business being in the ring where he could make them all orphans.

0:50 left: And this is exactly why. Continuous blows to the head are not good for anyone.

SCHAFER WINS!! Oh wow, the Assassin taps out. “That is the greatest shit of all time” Schafer’s buddy says to him. And the line on Shafer’s shirt “Jesus didn’t tap.” You know this guy is full of himself. But I guess you have to think you are the shit to get in the Octagon on a regular basis.
I enjoyed my first fight. It went a full round, I got to see a guy get pummelled in the face, tap out due to an ‘arm triangle’ (I don’t know what that is but it sounds sweet). Hey Star Wars The Force Unleashed sponsors the UFC. When Jedi’s back your sport you know something good is going down for you.
Shout out to the deceased hero, classic.
And back to commercials.

I don’t know what pit fight is. But the commercial that just aired makes it look awesome. If this fight keeps me interested, maybe I will watch that.

Opportunity Knocks. A new show. Whoever thought to bring reality TV and game shows together is an idiot. (Granted I openly hate reality TV but still this looks dumb) How much of the show is a game show and how much is them turning the street into a game show. Will I get to here sappy family stories if I watch. This sounds like shit. I encourage you to watch.

Herman vs. Belcher: Herman seems to be confident that he will control the fight, claiming to be able to keep it standing or on the ground depending on what he wants. So I will pick Alan ‘the Talent’ Belcher. (Note that I never read anything on these fighters and are picking them solely by nicknames and facial expressions only.) How do I keep picking the guys with short shorts.

3:52 left in first: I just realized what the Ultimate Fighter is like. It is like Farm Teams. They need to develop new talent right, cause Chuck Lidell (the only MMA fighter I have ever heard of, thanks Entourage!) won’t fight forever. So they use this reality show, get to air it and make money from it and hopefully get some new fighters ready to go.

1:50 left in 1st: Apparently some time in Thailand will not only make you stronger but it will also sharpen your mind! What great colour commentary.

0:10 left in 1st: Herman keeps going for some kind of choke. All I think is Vulcan Death Grip. As soon as the bell rings they go to commercial. Not even a lead out. That is maximizing ad space!

2:45 left in 2nd: A switch to southpaw by my boy Belcher. A risky move considering the constraints of dexterity.

0:09 left in 2nd: Wow what a punch. Fakes him out by looking to the side and then just jumps and punches to the top of the head. Its my kind of move. I picked the right guy, win or lose.

4:59 left in 3rd: They start by high fiving. How cute.

2:15 left in third: Belcher keeps looking at the clock. I can’t tell if this is good or bad. Is he tired or cocky? Or is he in league with the mafia and needs Herman to fall at a certain point.

Fight over. They go the distance. Impressive feat of athletic ability. One Vote Belcher. One against. SPLIT DECISION. My boy wins. It was all the superman punch. OK, this guy is crazy. Literally, he can’t talk right now. He is getting defensive about his critics. And now he told the place where to go party. Do MMA fighters get to drink, or is that against their training? Either way I bet that is a good party. Or at least a good sausage fest.

War Machine formerly Jon Koppenhaver was finally released from the UFC. He claims that he was released over his comments about Evan Tanner’s death and rejecting the idea of becoming a gatekeeper.

Basically he wanted to fight guys he could make a name out of and refuse to put people over. With his statements offending the homosexuals, his legal issue with beating up a guy outside a club and jumping the gun and saying Evan Tanner killed himself. It was about freakin’ time they released him.

Let me be clear, I don’t hate War Machine, I personally think he’s a funny character but in the end it’s hard to put the name “professional” next to his name without laughing.

Evan Tanner was found dead in California at the tender age of 37 today. The cause of death is unknown but Tanner was apparently taking a trip to the desert by himself, journeys that he would normally take. He told friends to call authorities if they didn’t hear back from him…

I was not a hardcore fan and I’ve gotten to experience the latter part of his career but he seemed like a stand up that was a great personality in the sport of MMA. He was a great character that likely had a future in MMA regardless if his fighting career was mostly to end. On his last post he sported himself with his beard shaved off and the training facility he was in and some fabulous photos of Oceanside, California.

Tanner’s MMA career was impressive and he fought the best of the best. He compiled a record of 32-8. He fought the world’s best such as Tito Ortiz, Rich Franklin, Phil Baroni, Robbie Lawler, David Loiseau, and Yushin Okami.

He also reigned as middleweight champion defeating David Terrell at UFC 51.

His last fight was a split decision loss to Kendall Grove in June.

Here are some videos:
Evan Tanner vs Yushin Okami:

Evan Tanner HL

Rest in Peace Evan Tanner!

Chuck “Iceman” Liddell (-285) vs ‘Sugar’ Rashad Evans (+225)

Based on talent alone, this is an easy pick. Liddell should be able to avoid getting taken down and punishing Evans on his feet. Evans is not really a top 10 light heavyweight despite what they say. He has a win over an undersized Michael Bisping and a draw with Ortiz (which he lost to but Ortiz had points deducted). There are a few reasons this match is considered unplayable. First is Chuck Liddell’s age. At an age of 38, or over an age of 35 sometimes you never know when a fighter goes over the hill. You could point to his fight with Jardine where he was tactically taken off his game via leg kicks and was unable to mount any offense. Sometimes age is irrelevant but Liddell is coming off a pretty severe hamstring injury that will hurt him the future.

Pick: No play or go with Liddell with caution. I don’t see Evans taking down Liddell easily, even then Liddell can get back on his feet. Evans won’t score enough on the ground in my opinion to win over the judges. I can see a decision as Evans may be timid to shoot on Liddell’s counter punching style. Liddell should outclass Evans.

Matt “The Hammer” Hamill (+205) vs Rich “Ace” Franklin (-255)

This one isn’t as clear cut as the line suggests. Franklin is an experience and world class middleweight. The real problem is that his only real strength in terms of fighting is his strength/size. As a middleweight his advantage was always his strength in the clinch where he would control the action against fences and avoid takedowns and power out of submissions. It’s a real question mark how good he will be at Light-Heavyweight a much stronger division. Looking at only Rich Franklin would be unwise because Matt Hamill is becoming a top 10 fighter. He outstruck some strikers in Boetsch and Bisping and finished Boetsch after a lazy single leg (he tired him out on the feet). Hamill is slowly getting better and he’s almost there. The problem is that Rich Franklin is probably his toughest test but he’s more then capable of beating Franklin in the clinch, on the feet as well as taking him down if needed.

Pick: At +205 the line is only that way because Franklin has much more experience and only losses to Silva and Machida. I think Franklin is still the better fighter right now with experience being a strong factor. He doesn’t have amazing striking that would be formidable at LHW compared to Silva though. I’ll take the value on Hamill, I’m personally betting small because I am a Matt Hamill fan and I generally try to stay away from betting on fan favorites. Franklin can win but I don’t see it being by TKO and by decision.

Yoshiyuki Yoshida (+190) vs Karo Parisyan (-240)
Both are judoka’s. Parisyan is/was a word class judo practitioners. I think Parisyan is the better skilled one as the line suggests and I haven’t seen enough of Yoshia to be honest. Seeing his fight with War Machine and Dan Hardy gave me very little (Hardy was DQ’d by accidental groin kick). He also lost to Keita Nakamura who is a 155er (lost to Emerson in his last match). Yoshida does have a formidable ground and pound. Parisyan is just so close to being a contender and then loses. It’s pretty sad actually. He’s looked overweight and lethargic.

Pick: I could see it going either way (Yoshida could pull off an upset). I chose not to bet at all because Judo vs Judo fights make it hard to deal with. Parisyan is still close to tops in the UFC welterweight division, he just needs to rack key wins and this will be the first step back.

Dan Henderson (-210) vs Rousimar “Toquinho” Palhares (+170)

Dan Henderson has two losses in a row to the world’s best in Anderson Silva and Rampage Jackson. He’s still a world class athlete and while he is 38, he just feels young. Palhares is an elite jiu-jitsu grappler who made a nick slick armbar against Ivan Salaverry. He also holds over a win against Fabio Negao.

Pick: Henderson has had the bigger wars and the much bigger fighters. Unless Henderson comes in unmotivated it should end either by TKO/KO or perhaps a decision. Henderson is a great bet here though. I think the hype around Palhares is too high and beating Salaverry isn’t as impressive.

Martin Kampmann (+115) vs Nate Marquadt (-145)
The line started out with Kampmann (-110) and Marquadt (-130). Kampmann is coming off a win against Jorge Rivera after a year long injury with his knee and returned in style by dominating Rivera. He’s a Muay-Thai guy with some serious skills in submission wrestling and trains with Xtreme Couture. Marquadt trains with Greg Jackson and was once considered top of the middleweight division. He lost to Anderson Silva and most recently lost a controversial match to Thales Leites. He really beat Leites but was deducted 2 points on each of the 3 judges.
Pick: Both guys are deserving to be near the top. Kampmann is still a concern with his knee but he’s still young. I felt like Kampmann was the better choice due to his elite striking and he is no slouch on the ground either. I see him giving Marquardt problems though Marquadt could pull out a decision, I still think Kampmann should be a slight favorite instead so betting on Kampmann here.

This one will be quick. I have no time and many of you will probably care more for the main card anyway.
Kurt Pellegrino (+240) vs Thiago Tavares (-300)

Pick: Kurt Pellegrino. If the odds were -110 for each fighter I would still choose Pellegrino outright, so here’s another match I’m putting my money on. Pellgrino is well versed in jiu-jitsu as well as he’s a good striker as well. He can do some damage witnessed by Nate Diaz’s face. He just got caught in Diaz’s guard which is game over for anyone. Thiago Tavares is overrated despite my predicated loss against Matt Wiman (Wiman was a 3 1/2 dog). I just Tavares see having trouble on their feet and he’ll try to take down Pellegrino where he doesn’t mount much offense in the first place.

Jason Lambert (+150) vs Jason MacDonald (-180)
Pick: MacDonald should win but stay away. This was meant to be a Jason vs Jason fight with Day getting injured. MacDonald is a tough test for every MW, he’s a very good gate keeper and Lambert has been dropping weight since struggling in both HW and LHW. He doesn’t seem to have enough skills other then wrestling to pull it off imo. MacDonald is coming off a great fight against Maia where his face was battered with elbows. He doesn’t like he’s in any shape to fight but I love his heart.

Ryo Chonan (-120) vs Roan Carniero (-110)
This is a rematch and I haven’t seen it when Chonan beat Carneiro by cut in the 3rd round in the DEEP organization. I did see the Carneiro fight with Burns. The only Chonan bout I’ve seen was against Anderson Silva who he beat.
Pick: Ryo Chonan. I just don’t think Carneiro has decent enough striking nor jiu-jitsu skills to get it done.
Quick picks:
Tim Boetsch should win easily against Patt.
Dong Kim should beat Matt Brown..but don’t bet on Kim. Brown seems like he can pull off the upset.

George ‘Rush’ St. Pierre vs. Jon Fitch
I don’t know whose going to have a tougher time with this fight, George St. Pierre or Dana White and Joe Rogan trying to convince us that Jon Fitch is a serious threat to GSP’s title? Stylistically, Fitch is the perfect fighter for GSP to absolutely dominate. Fitch has a wrestler’s base and a black belt in BJJ. I’ve grappled wrestlers who have made the transition to BJJ, and because strength is so elementary in being a good wrestler, you get a lot of these guys who will try to power their way into securing a submission. I always felt this way about St. Pierre as well. As one of the strongest fighters in the UFC’s welterweight division, he was able to control and beat Mayhem Miller on the ground when Mayhem is clearly the better ground technician. Not to take anything away from GSP’s ground game, both him and Fitch know how to use their strength and weight appropriately to maintain top position. Subsequently, you have two strong submission wrestlers, the advantage in grappling goes to whoever is the strongest which is easily GSP. The way GSP handedly threw Hughes around like a rag doll in their last meeting is indicative of his power and ever-improving wrestling which includes spectacular takedown defense. That is not without mention his often overlooked opponent in Josh Koschek who in my opinion is the fighter who will give GSP the most problems. GSP took Koschek down at will and stuffed all but one of his takedowns.

The standup advantage is a no-brainer. With recent wins coming by way of a strong wrestling and ground-and-pound, people may need a reminder that GSP possesses some of the most solid and versatile striking from his karate background. I for one hope to see St. Pierre more readily use his striking against Fitch.

Prediction: George ‘Rush’ St. Pierre via (T)KO in round 3. Like GSP said, there’s nothing that Fitch can do that he cannot do better. Easy pick and easy win for ‘Rush’ and us MMA fan who can look forward to a more competitive fight in an inevitable rematch with BJ Penn.

Roger ‘El Matador’ Huerta vs. Kenny ‘Kenflo’ Florian
This fight has all the ingredients for fight of the year. Both fighters bring an intense pace to their game coupled with endless endurance and ferocious heart. The winner will receive the number-one contender for BJ Penn’s lightweight title in the near future.

With that said, in what is MMA’s most stacked division, UFC matchmaker Joe Silva could not have picked two fighters who are lesser deserving to fight for number-one contendership. While Kenny Florian is arguably more deserving with three-straight wins (mind you, to less-than-stellar competition) since dropping a hard-fought decision to Sean Sherk in their title fight, Roger Huerta’s name should not even be mentioned amongst UFC’s top-10 lightweights. Since arriving to the UFC, Huerta has picked up an undefeated streak (against much less-than-stellar competition) before last winning against Clay Guida in one of the most exciting comeback fights last year. I guess having a pretty face and landing on SI’s cover warrants special treatment by the UFC.

Kenny Florian has some of the most vicious and accurate leg kicks which were on full display against Mishima. Trained in BJJ and Muay Thai which included his traveling to Thailand prior to his stint on The Ultimate Fighter, Kenny is a force standing and on the ground. Since training striking with Mark Delagrotte, Kenny’s striking has only continued to improve. Taking some brief time off, Florian exhibited a hidden talent for color commentary. Should his fight career be cut short, I look forward to hearing him at the announcer table.

Roger Huerta trains out of the famed Miletich Fighting Systems in Iowa. Standard to MFS fighters, orthodox boxing, strong wrestling and good heart is at the core of Huerta’s style. Huerta took some time to visit Canada and train with welterweight champion George St. Pierre, and since seems to believe himself to be the next BJ Penn. In the pre-fight interviews, Huerta smugly remarked that KenFlo will be a cakewalk; that he will never lose and is already looking ahead to BJ Penn. Sorry Roger, you are a very exciting and hard-working, but there is nothing in your past fights that indicates that you will last a round with BJ. It’s simple; training with champions gives fighters a premature and unmerited confidence. I’m calling it the champion’s shadow syndrome. It happened to Joe Lauzon while training with BJ Penn; Team Punishment under Tito Ortiz, and the rejects at MFS under the semi-religious guidance of Matt Hughes.

Both fighters showed the same weakness is their last fight. Huerta was repeatedly taken down by Guida for two rounds, as was Florian against Lauzon. With that said, Huerta was unable return the favor, whereas Kenny showed his superb ground game maintaining a strong mount to finish Joe with strikes. The thing with Huerta is that you got to wonder how long he can keep coming back from behind to pull off the victory. With a finisher like Florian, this notion will be tested and I do not think Huerta will pass.

The one-two combination Huerta used continuously against Guida became predictable and gave way to El Matador being taken down at will. Florian’s standup is crisp and deceptively powerful given his lean frame. His Muay Thai background gives him some lethal elbows which I see him using to open Huerta up should the fight hit the floor.

I have to give the heart advantage to Huerta. Translated, I see the fight going the distance with Florian control the pace of the fight on the feet and on the ground. I’m actually going go out on a limb and suggest that the fight will end in controversy as I see Huerta putting up a good enough fight whereby some fans will score the fight in his favor.

Prediction: Kenny ‘Kenflo’ Florian via controversial split-decision. Florian for the win although I selfishly hope to see Huerta win as so we get to see BJ Penn handedly mop the floor with Roger when they square-off.

Brock Lesnar vs. ‘The Texas Crazy Horse’ Heath Herring
After a disappointing loss to Frank Mir, which included a controversial stand-up and point deduction, Lesnar looks to rebound against Pride veteran Heath Herring. Originally slated to take on Mark Coleman, Lesnar is again accepting the tougher fight in Herring. It seems the Minnesota natives always win me over after losing. My opinion changed on Sherk after his loss to Penn and in losing, Lesnar won me over.

It was only after re-watching Fedor vs. Herring recently, was I reminded of the punishment Heath can take. Guaranteed, he will get punished if the fight hits the floor, after all Lesnar’s fist are simply sledgehammers disguised as human appendages. One interesting fact that may surprise many is Heath is a little taller than Brock and may have the reach advantage.

Herring is a very well-rounded fighter and I see him taking Brock into deep waters. Herring is not exactly the easiest guy to finish but should Lesnar be able to pull this feat off, it’ll say a lot about his potential.

Overall, I think that if the fight goes to the ground, it’ll be on Lesnar’s terms. A good strategy would be since many will expect Herring to try and keep it standing, going for a takedown might be to his advantage as he’ll have the surprise element. Moreover, it’ll give audiences a good opportunity to see how Brock works off his back.

Prediction: ‘The Texas Crazy Horse’ Heath Herring via decision. I think it’ll be a long fight and with Brock’s training regiment, I don’t think he’ll gas. As for nerves, this guy is a competitor whose been in front thousands of people before, I don’t think it’ll affect him at all. Should be a great match-up but I’m going for Herring by decision.
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